Collins 3.875% Confirmed (Speechs in 30 Sep)
Jefferson 3.625% Confirmed (Speechs in 30 Sep)
Jefferson’s update is his first speech on monetary policy since May.
there was no surprise, but it could be taken as a sufficiently dovish signal.
The main point of disagreement between hawks and doves is the ‘difference in perception of the given data’.
About supercore, Hammack interpreted it as a signal that inflation is still high, Collins assessed it as a level consistent with the 2% target, and Jefferson evaluated it as being in a flat trend. (and at housing inflation, he assessed it as being on a gradual downward trend).
This divergence of views can’t be easily reconciled. While it is an environment that allows for diverse opinions, it also means these views can be stubbornly held. The wide dispersion in the September SEP’s dot plot illustrates this.
The release of GDP and Weekly Claims may have influenced the results.
Rating (±7) : -3
Risk & Return 